February 26, 2024

2024 NBA Betting — Why the Lakers are primed for a second-half surge

We’ve seen this film from Hollywood earlier than. Spurred by a roster re-tool at the commerce deadline, final 12 months’s Los Angeles Lakers surged in the ultimate two months of the season. The Lakers certified for the Western Conference playoffs by means of the play-in, then made an inconceivable run to the Western Conference Finals earlier than being swept away by the eventual champion Denver Nuggets in a collection that was way more aggressive than 4-0 final result would point out.

Fast-forward a 12 months and we’re left questioning if a comparable story arch is in retailer for the Lake Show. The current three-game profitable streak to begin the month of February has definitely caught our consideration.

The Lakers beat the Boston Celtics — the greatest crew in the league — in Boston with out LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They had been 15.5-point underdogs however managed the sport from begin to end. They adopted that up with one other upset win at Garden in opposition to a Knicks crew that had 9 video games in a row, this time LeBron and AD had been on the ground and AD particularly took over the sport in the pivotal 4th quarter as a one-man wrecking crew on protection. They closed out the Grammy highway journey with a breezy win in Charlotte and now return to Crypto.com Arena to host the… Denver Nuggets Thursday evening.

A win over the crew that swept them out of the playoffs might additional point out the Lakers, who lest we neglect gained the inaugural In-Season Tournament, are primed for one other late season run.

What do you have to be betting on this crew?

Los Angeles Lakers to win NBA Championship (+1500) — No

The worth shouldn’t be right here for a crew that’s taking part in its greatest ball, however nonetheless has some main roster points. The Jared Vanderbilt harm could seem small, however it’s removed from insignificant. He unlocks their defensive ceiling taking part in alongside Davis. IF he misses the remainder of the season, that’s a main blow. The Lakers nonetheless really feel like they do not have sufficient capturing round LeBron. Maybe this adjustments by the deadline, however proper now this roster would not really feel like a legit championship contender. I wish to see this worth north of +2000 earlier than contemplating it.

Lakers to win Western Conference (+1200) — Only if you happen to’re a Lakers fan

This worth is a bit extra interesting. This crew did make it to the Western Conference Finals a 12 months in the past, and Playoff LeBron ought to NEVER be discounted. While the Western Conference could seem deep on paper, is it actually? The Thunder and Timberwolves have virtually zero playoff fairness on their resume. Sure, they’re objectively nice groups, however is that lack of expertise one thing you wish to wager on in the NBA postseason? The Nuggets are legit. The Clippers are taking part in like an offensive juggernaut. The Suns have a ridiculous Big 3. The Lakers (seemingly) will not must beat all three of these groups to advance to the Finals, solely two of them. Again, for Playoff LeBron, we have seen that film many instances earlier than. Only as a Lakers fan is that this worth palatable.

Pacific Division Winner (+8000) — No

I like a longshot play, however there’s simply not sufficient video games left on the schedule. They’re 8.5 GB of the Clippers in the division, however sitting in 4th place behind the Kings and Suns, too. I’d like to say that is a good wager for longshot worth, but it surely’s simply not playable. We would want one thing bigger than +10000 for this miracle to occur.

LeBron James MVP (+50000) — No

Probably deserves extra consideration than this, however he is acquired no shot.

Austin Reaves sixth man of the 12 months (+5000) — I want I might, however I can not …

About a month and a half in the past, I wrote a betting article about this market and Reaves was mainly a betting co-favorite with Tim Hardaway Jr. Now he is a 50-to-1 longshot! Perhaps it is as a result of Reaves is now being utilized by Darvin Ham in the beginning lineup, and it seems that is definitely a higher use of his abilities. Reaves is taking part in higher individually, and the tam has discovered extra success with him beginning as opposes to coming off the bench. I believed he had a actual shot for the award 6-7 weeks in the past, however now it seems the market has fully turned in opposition to him.

Anthony Davis Defensive Player of the Year (+6600) — Yes

This is my favourite strategy to wager the Lakers at the second. Davis has all the time been thought of considered one of the greatest defenders in the fashionable NBA, but he is by no means gained this award. Rudy Gobert, the odds-on favourite, has gained the award three completely different instances. Could we see some voter fatigue? Yes, the Timberwolves do have the greatest protection in the league and Gobert is the anchor, however Davis’ affect feels extra singular when watching the groups play. If you wish to take a look at metrics, Gobert leads the league with 3.9 Defensive Win Shares. Davis is sitting at 3.0 (tied third). When it involves Defensive Box Plus/Minus, Gobert is at 1.9, Davis is at 1.8. If the Lakers make one other late season run and climb the Western Conference standings, AD goes to have loads of nationally televised alternatives so as to add to his case. Outside of Gobert, solely OG Anunoby (injured), Chet Holmgren (rookie), and Jarrett Allen have shorter odds than Davis. He looks as if a longshot at the second, however to me I feel his sensible possibilities are higher than 1.5%, which is what his present odds mirror.