June 13, 2024

Donald Trump may have a shot at winning Virginia

The final time the Commonwealth of Virginia supported a Republican presidential candidate was in 2004, when then-President George W. Bush capped off 10 consecutive wins for the GOP within the Old Dominion, however former President Donald Trump has a shot at reversing that development this November.

Once thought of a perennial swing state, Virginia has tilted ever so barely towards the Democratic Party in latest elections. Former President Barack Obama received the state in 2008 and in 2012, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton carried the state in her shedding marketing campaign in 2016, and President Joe Biden received the state in 2020 by a 10-point margin. In statewide elections, Republicans have fared barely higher, winning races for governor, lieutenant governor, and legal professional common in 2009 and 2021, whereas Democrats received the identical positions in 2013 and 2017. Democrats have held each Senate seats since 2006.

By any metric, Virginia has not been aggressive at the nationwide stage in additional than a decade. When Trump received the presidency with out the state in 2016, he grew to become the primary Republican to take action since William Howard Taft in 1908.

It is amid this backdrop that a new poll from Roanoke College exhibits the presidential election within the state tied. Biden and Trump each registered 42% support within the new ballot, whereas the president opens up a slim 2-point benefit when third-party candidates reminiscent of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein are included.

For a state that has hardly been aggressive for Republicans in latest cycles, the ballot outcomes are nothing wanting astounding. If Biden fails to hold Virginia in November, his path to 270 electoral votes and a second time period within the White House is virtually nonexistent, given his polling in different swing states.

The ballot’s result’s all of the extra notable given the propensity of polling to severely underestimate support for Trump. In 2020, polling overestimated Biden’s support in Virginia by a few factors, however polling averages have been fairly correct in 2016.


The former president and his marketing campaign needs to be searching for any avenue to increase the electoral map and drive the Biden staff to spend sources on states that will in any other case be thought of protected Democratic territory. The Trump marketing campaign has argued for a number of weeks that Virginia is in play, and this newest ballot validates their declare.

For the previous 3 1/2 years, Biden’s insurance policies have severely harm the well-being of the folks of Virginia. Housing costs have soared, inflation has harm financial institution accounts, and unlawful immigration has strained native infrastructure and sources. Voters within the commonwealth are fed up with it and may flip the state vivid crimson come November.

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