College football coaching carousel: What recent hiring trends could tell us about new coaches in 2024 season

When energy convention athletic administrators are in the method of hiring a new football coach, they’re primarily confronted with two choices: both take a swing at upside and determine an up-and-coming assistant or head coach at a decrease degree, or pay large cash to lure a sitting coach with a cushty job at one of many nation’s premier leagues. Available sources play an enormous an element in the ultimate name, however we’ve seen some faculties pull off main coups in recent years. 

The 2021-22 cycle noticed three coaches with job safety at main energy convention faculties, two of which had led their packages to College Football Playoff appearances (Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly), go away for new jobs. The 2023-24 carousel broke that mark with 4 coaches shifting from Power Four faculty to Power Four faculty. 

As a fast recap of the motion: Alabama employed Washington’s Kalen DeBoer to switch Nick Saban; Washington crammed its emptiness with Arizona’s Jedd Fisch; Texas A&M lured Mike Elko away from Duke after the costly firing of Jimbo Fisher; and Michigan State was capable of pull Jonathan Smith away from his alma mater at Oregon State. 

There have been much more — what we’d name for this text’s functions — “upside swings” (i.e. hiring/selling assistant coaches or Group of Five head coaches): 

It’s exhausting to foretell success, irrespective of the coach’s earlier location. Of the 2 classes we’ve sorted coaches into for the reason that 2021-22 cycle — “Upside swings” and “Power conference to Power conference” — the successful percentages are virtually equivalent. 

Obviously, the pattern dimension with former assistants and Group of Five coaches is bigger and the hit charge is arguably extra spectacular, particularly while you issue in preliminary contract numbers and relative expectations. But while you zoom in even additional on the info from the final two coaching cycles and the following seasons on the sector, there are some fascinating trends we are able to pull out and apply to the 2024 hires to form of set the tone for his or her first yr. 

Upside swings 

Recruiters win: Turns out, expertise acquisition is essential in the case of successful in faculty football. It’s definitely one of many major elements that packages ought to take into account when hiring a new coach, particularly in the event that they’re focusing on assistants. 

Just take a look at the rapid success of Oregon coach Dan Lanning. During his stint at Georgia, in which he served as exterior linebackers coach after which defensive coordinator, he was chargeable for bringing in a few of the most notable expertise that went on to rework Georgia into the defensive Death Star it’s right this moment. Nolan Smith, a first-round decide in the 2023 NFL Draft, and Nakobe Dean, who received the 2021 Butkus Award as the perfect linebacker in the game, spring to thoughts. Lanning is now 22-5 in two seasons at Oregon, and the Ducks are recruiting at a ridiculous degree each by the highschool ranks and the switch portal. 

Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire is one other nice instance. Though he might not have hauled in as many blue-chip prospects, McGuire established himself as considered one of Baylor’s greatest evaluators and closers on the recruiting path as an assistant from 2017-21. His deep ties to the state of Texas as a former head coach at Cedar Hill High School definitely assist. 

McGuire’s 15-11 report by two seasons is the perfect begin for a Texas Tech coach since Steve Sloan, who had 16 wins from 1975-76. In 2022, he grew to become the primary Texas Tech coach to beat Oklahoma and Texas in the identical season and posted this system’s first successful convention report since 2009. On the recruiting entrance? The Red Raiders have signed 5 of the 20 highest-rated prospects in program historical past (in accordance with the 247Sports Composite) by two full recruiting cycles below McGuire. 

This bodes effectively for Syracuse and Fran Brown. Though he’s by no means been a coordinator on the energy convention degree, his recruiting bona fides are arguably extra spectacular than another rent in the course of the 2023-24 cycle. He was named 247Sports National Recruiter of the Year in 2024 after netting two five-stars and 5 top-100 prospects for Georgia’s top-rated recruiting class. His influence is already being felt at Syracuse because the Orange boast a powerful 17-player switch class headlined by former Ohio State beginning quarterback Kyle McCord. 

Also keep watch over new UCLA coach DeShaun Foster, who had a knack for figuring out working again expertise with the Bruins, and Michigan coach Sherrone Moore, the first recruiter for stars like Daxton Hill and J.J. McCarthy throughout his time as an assistant with the Wolverines. 

Group of Five hires hit the bottom working: Over the previous two coaching cycles, former Group of Five coaches are 43-24 in their first season on the energy convention degree. All 5 that match into that class — Florida’s Billy Napier, Alabama’s DeBoer, TCU’s Sonny Dykes, Auburn’s Hugh Freeze and Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell — made it to not less than a bowl recreation in their inaugural season. 

Admittedly, DeBoer and Dykes are doing a little heavy lifting right here. Dykes spearheaded a miraculous run to the College Football Playoff National Championship in 2022, whereas DeBoer reworked 4-8 Washington into an 11-win staff that completed the yr ranked top-10 nationally for the primary time since 2016. 

What occurred after that first yr is a blended bag. Including Napier, DeBoer was the one of three former Group of Five coaches to enhance on his win whole from 2022-23. The Huskies went 14-1 amid a run to their first CFP National Championship look ever final season, whereas Napier and Dykes — who needed to take care of a number of notable losses from that Cinderella staff — mixed for a 10-14 report. 

So, good issues could be in retailer for Curt Cignetti at Indiana and Willie Fritz at Houston. Fritz is getting into a large open Big 12 after main Tulane to back-to-back 11-win seasons, whereas Cignetti by no means received fewer than 11 video games in a full 12-game season at James Madison. 

Power convention to energy convention

Program builders exceed expectations: What do I imply by program builders? Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is a wonderful instance. In 2017, Brohm inherited a Purdue staff contemporary off 4 straight shedding seasons and instantly received seven video games and produced the Boilermakers’ first bowl win in six years. 

From there, Purdue went by some highs and lows whereas Brohm steadily molded the roster into his picture. Then, in 2021, Brohm produced Purdue’s first nine-win season since 1998 by beating a sizzling Tennessee staff in the Music City Bowl. He adopted that up in 2022 by guiding the Boilermakers to their first Big Ten Championship Game look since 2000. 

Louisville recognized Brohm’s success in the course of the 2022-23 coaching carousel and went after him to switch Scott Satterfield. In his first season with the Cardinals, he went 10-4, completed runner-up behind Florida State in the ACC and gave Louisville its first rating in the ultimate AP Top 25 since 2016. This for a Louisville staff that was picked to complete eighth in the convention in the ACC Preseason Media Poll. 

Washington’s Jedd Fisch and Michigan State’s Jonathan Smith match that Brohm mould. Fisch received one recreation in his first season at Arizona (2021), improved to 5-7 in 2022 and simply led the Wildcats to a 10-4 report, parlaying that into a chance with the Huskies and the Big Ten. 

A fellow Big Ten newcomer for the 2024 season, Smith launched into an excellent slower however equally fruitful construct at Oregon State. He had shedding seasons in every of his first three years (2018-20) earlier than breaking by in 2021 with a 7-6 displaying. He raised the bar even additional in 2022 with a 10-3 marketing campaign, capped by a win towards Florida in the Las Vegas bowl, and bought the Beavers to 8-4 in 2023 previous to taking the Michigan State job. 

Strike whereas the iron is sizzling: College football at all times has been, and has turn into extra so in recent years, a “what have you done for me lately” sport. As it seems with these big-money hires, timing would possibly simply be every little thing. 

USC employed Lincoln Riley after a 2021 season in which he did not win the Big 12 title and missed out on a New Year’s Six bowl for the primary time since turning into a head coach in 2017. In his first season with the Trojans, Riley did produce a Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Caleb Williams, however the on-field outcomes didn’t essentially mirror that; USC misplaced three video games — probably the most losses in a single season (to that time) in Riley’s profession — and fell in the Cotton Bowl towards Tulane. 

Things bought considerably worse in 2023. With Williams again to helm the offense, USC dropped to 8-5 and misplaced 4 convention video games in its remaining season as a Pac-12 program. 

Mario Cristobal is the same story. Oregon hit its zenith below Cristobal in 2019 when it went 12-2, received the Pac-12 and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks adopted that up with one other convention title in the course of the COVID-shortened 2020 marketing campaign. Oregon received 10 video games in 2021 and made it to a 3rd straight Pac-12 Championship Game, however the Ducks misplaced two out of their final three contests — each to Utah — and Cristobal bolted to Miami earlier than he could coach in an Alamo Bowl loss to Oklahoma. 

Miami is now 12-13 after two years of Cristobal. Its win whole improved by two video games from 2022-23, however the Hurricanes have posted an ACC report of 3-5 in consecutive seasons. 

As outlined above, Louisville’s hiring of Brohm is an instance of fine timing. He got here to the Cardinals proper after a stunning run to the Big Ten Championship Game. Most of the ability convention packages that took an enormous swing this offseason bought the timing proper as effectively. 

Alabama employed DeBoer simply days after he led Washington to the College Football Playoff National Championship. Fisch left for Washington after a 10-win season and Michigan State honed in on Smith after his 18 wins over the previous two years. No telling how their new ventures will play out, however momentum is definitely on their facet.