Kentucky vs. Arkansas: Who wins if John Calipari’s new-look Razorbacks faced Mark Pope’s balanced Wildcats?

The 2024-25 faculty basketball season is simply over six months away, but it surely’s by no means too early for projections. John Calipari’s choice to depart his submit at Kentucky for the vacant job at Arkansas final month created a ripple impact all through the game that resulted in Mark Pope returning to his alma mater after spending 5 seasons at BYU.

Let’s say, only for enjoyable, we satisfied the 2 groups to satisfy someplace within the center for a scrimmage this month (Poplar Bluff, anybody?). They’ll after all face off at a to-be-determined time and site throughout SEC play in 2024-25, however we would like solutions now. Who could be favored in one in all faculty basketball’s most anticipated video games of the season? Who would win? 

Arkansas and Kentucky will characteristic rosters that can look drastically totally different from the earlier season. Since Calipari’s arrival in Arkansas, he’s helped land five former Kentucky pledges (Karter Knox, Zvonimir Ivišić, Boogie Fland, Adou Theiro, and Billy Richmond) to pair with former Tennessee large man Jonas Aidoo and FAU star guard Johnell Davis.

Pope is constructing a roster that options zero returning scholarship gamers. His first switch portal dedication got here from incoming freshman guard Collin Chandler, who spent the final two years on a Mormon mission. Chandler was Pope’s highest-rated signee (No. 33 total) throughout his tenure at BYU. 

Kentucky has landed high-profile commitments from Dayton sharpshooter Koby Brea, West Virginia guard Kerr Kriisa, San Diego State guard Lamont Butler, and Oklahoma guard Otega Oweh. All 4 gamers mission as influence gamers as Kentucky enters a brand new period.

While each groups are anticipated so as to add extra gamers through the switch portal within the coming weeks, right here is the case for every workforce if the primary matchup occurred at the moment with the present rosters.

Why Kentucky would win

Kentucky’s projected beginning lineup

Bench choices: G Lamont Butler, C Brandon Garrison and G Collin Chandler

The case for the Wildcats: The largest flaw of the 2023-24 Kentucky roster was the protection. The Wildcats completed with the No. 334 scoring protection (79.7 ppg) which ranked fourth-worst amongst all Power Six groups. Ironically, Arkansas’ protection was one of many models that ranked worse than Kentucky (79.8 ppg). While each rosters look totally different, Kentucky has accomplished extra this offseason to enhance the protection. 

Williams and Butler are each standout defenders of their respective positions. Brea is likely one of the finest shooters in faculty basketball, and Kriisa led the Pac-12 in assists when he was at Arizona through the 2022-23 season. Last season’s Kentucky workforce completed No. 2 in scoring offense (89 ppg) and knocked down 9.9 3-pointers per recreation, ok for sixteenth. Under Pope, BYU completed third in 3-pointers made (11.1) and 41% of its complete factors got here from distance, per KenPom.com. BYU was No. 14 in adjusted offensive effectivity and completed with the Twenty second-ranked scoring offense (81.4 ppg). 

Kentucky at present has extra bench depth than Arkansas. You can argue that Butler must be within the beginning lineup over Kriisa, however the latter is likely one of the finest pure passers within the nation that can assist facilitate Pope’s offensive system that did wonders at BYU. 

Chandler is perhaps the most important wildcard of the complete group. He hasn’t performed a minute of school basketball but and was a highly-touted recruit within the 2022 cycle. Arkansas has the expertise benefit (like most Calipari-led groups do) when going through one other opponent in both nonconference or SEC play. The mixture of Kentucky’s improved protection and the brand new offensive system is why they might win this recreation at the moment. And for what it’s price, I’d set the road at Kentucky favored by 2.5 factors. — Cameron Salerno

Why Arkansas would win

Arkansas’ projected beginning lineup:

• G: Boogie Fland
• G: Nelly Davis
• G/F: Karter Knox
• F: Adou Theiro
• C: Jonas Aidoo

Bench choices: C Zvonimir Ivišić and G Billy Richmond

The case for the Razorbacks: Arkansas’ high-end expertise has an opportunity to make John Calipari’s first season one thing actually, actually good. If you wanted the most effective score-first guard within the switch portal, FAU star Johnell ‘Nelly’ Davis match the invoice. If you wanted essentially the most well-rounded large man, Tennessee switch Jonas Aidoo match the invoice.

Arkansas received each of ’em.

Aidoo’s defensive versatility is legit. He can shield the rim at a excessive clip. Tennessee opponents shot simply 53% on the rim when Aidoo was on the ground. But he can guard ball-screens in a number of methods, and offensively, his well-rounded recreation is completely fitted to trendy hoops. He owns a feathery contact within the paint, makes good selections in 4-on-3 situations and when his engine is revved up, Aidoo could be the most effective large man on any ground.

Kentucky switch Adou Thiero is a superb wing handler who can create benefits on the fly. He will get downhill in a rush and supplies oodles of rim stress.

Pound for pound, Arkansas’ expertise is forward of Kentucky’s at this stage of the offseason and I’d have the Razorbacks favored. Will that stay intact by November? That stays to be seen. Talent doesn’t all the time win ball video games, but it surely certain doesn’t damage. How ballyhooed children like Karter Knox, Boogie Fland, Zvonimir Ivisic and Billy Richmond assimilate into the combination with Arkansas’ portal superstars will make or break the Hogs’ ceiling.

Davis and Aidoo would definitely be the most effective two gamers on the ground in a possible Arkansas-Kentucky duel, and Thiero wouldn’t be far behind that high duo. — Isaac Trotter