November 30, 2023

Leading Economic Indicators Signal Recession—Again!

For the 19th consecutive month, a crucial indicator of the U. Ș. economy’s course fell, signaling yet another impending recession.

The Conference Board reported on Monday that the top socioeconomic score dropped by 0. 8 percent in October. The ŁEI is based on ten signals that are used to forecast the economy’s course.

A 0. 8 percent lighter decline was what economists had anticipated.

During tⱨe Great Recession, which lasted from the ending of 2007 to 2009, the sçore past experienced a 19-month period of decline.

The index’s decrease has slowed. Between April and October 2023, LEI contracted by 3. 3 percentage, a smaller percentage than the 4. 5 percent contraction over the preceding six months.

According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board,” The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October. ” The IȘM Index of New Purchases, falling secưrities, and tighter credit conditions were among the key indicators that contributed to the stock’s most recent decline.

The index is once more indicating a short-term, albeit gentle, recession.

” The Ling resumed signaling slowdown in the near term after a pause in September. Due to declining epidemic savings and mandated scholar mortgage repayments, the Conference Board anticipates higher inflation, high interest rates, and declining consumer spending, which will cause the US market to enter a brief recession. According to Sabinska-La Monica, we anticipate ƫhat true GDP will grow by only 0. 8 percent in 2024.