Trade analysis: Marlins make out like sharks in the Luis Arraez trade with Padres

Trade particulars: Padres purchase 2B Luis Arráez from the Marlins for RHP Woo-Suk Go, OF Dillon Head, 1B Nathan Martorella and OF Jakob Marsee

The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins pulled off a surprise May trade, two months earlier than deadline mania normally units in, sending Luis Arráez to San Diego for a formidable haul of three prospects plus a minor-league reliever. The Padres might have made themselves a bit higher right here, however the Marlins did particularly effectively, and started a rebuild that was overdue.

The Padres’ offense hasn’t been an enormous drawback for them this 12 months, though you may see some cracks in the basis that including Arráez would possibly handle. He doesn’t appear to have an apparent place to play on the Padres, nonetheless, with Xander Bogaerts at second base — the place Bogaerts ought to have performed the second he signed with San Diego — and Jake Cronenworth hitting fairly effectively whereas enjoying first. Perhaps the three of them will cycle by means of the DH spot, though Arráez has to return to his 2022-23 stage of manufacturing to justify enjoying him there (as would Bogaerts, now that you simply point out it). Arráez has misplaced some contact high quality in the early going this 12 months, not sufficient to sound the alarm and say he’s a lesser hitter however sufficient to notice and say it bears watching, particularly since the Padres have moderately clearly indicated that they suppose it’s nothing to fret about.

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The return for Miami appeared stable with the preliminary studies that it included Dillon Head and Nathan Martorella, however while you throw in Jakob Marsee, that is the finest deal the Marlins have made in years.

Head is the jewel of the trade, a first-round decide final July who’s tooled out with 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) velocity, probably even 80, alongside with plus protection in heart and superb bat velocity. He confirmed robust contact high quality in 2023 after he signed, however that hasn’t carried over into the first month of 2024, the place he’s additionally proven some hassle with pitch recognition. He’s solely 19, and received’t even flip 20 till October, so there may be loads of time for him to make these changes, however I may also perceive the win-now Padres deciding his major-league ETA is just too far down the highway to matter to them.

Marsee ought to be a top quality fourth outfielder inside the subsequent 12 months, possibly by the finish of 2024, even with a sluggish begin in Double A this 12 months. He’s an above-average defender in heart who’s a really sensible basestealer and exhibits a powerful strategy at the plate, with a willingness to work a stroll that makes up for a fringy hit software. He doesn’t have nice bat velocity, so the contact high quality isn’t there to make him an everyday, and he might not hit lefties sufficient to get there regardless, however he ought to have optimistic major-league worth for a very long time as a part-timer.

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Martorella has the hit software that Marsee lacks, however none of the different stuff, as he’s in all probability a primary baseman in the finish — or a DH — and doesn’t have the energy but to profile as an everyday at both spot. He’s a useless fastball hitter who not less than hits lefties in addition to righties, so there’s some cause to hope he can discover a path to develop into a mushy common, both with extra energy or by boosting his offspeed recognition sufficient to hit for constantly excessive averages. He’s extra seemingly a forty five, a pleasant bench participant/reserve who has pinch-hitting worth and received’t kill you if he performs day-after-day for just a few weeks.

Woo-Suk Go is in the deal too, which I presume is to ship some wage again to Miami. The KBO veteran (and brother-in-law of Giants outfielder Jung Hoo Lee) hasn’t been very profitable as a reliever thus far in Double A, though his 92-94 mph fastball has missed some bats.

That’s three prospects with projected major-league worth, one a possible star, for a month wanting two years of management of Arráez. Miami is in free-fall proper now, with a rotation that’s fallen aside attributable to accidents and a actuality invoice they have been going to need to pay after final 12 months’s miraculous playoff berth regardless of being outscored on the season.

Trading Arráez for 3 gamers who ought to assist the staff sooner or later in the future is sensible. Doing it now, approach earlier than trade season opens up, is even smarter. For the Padres, I suppose it makes them a bit higher, however Arráez has to get again to final 12 months’s stage of manufacturing, and even when he does, they don’t want one other bat a lot as they want extra assistance on the pitching facet, and to see a few of their most extremely paid hitters get themselves again to the place they have been a 12 months or two in the past.

(Photo of Head from the 2022 Perfect Game All-Star Game: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)