Five factors that will determine Rangers-Hurricanes series

The New York Rangers had the NHL’s greatest regular-season report. The Carolina Hurricanes completed instantly of their rearview mirror, three factors again — and objects within the mirror are nearer than they seem.

“The Rangers were the best team, and we were on their heels all year,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour stated. “You gotta get through the best at some point, so might as well have at it now.”

They meet within the second spherical of the Stanley Cup playoffs, after the Rangers swept the Washington Capitals and the Hurricanes eradicated the New York Islanders in 5 video games. Game 1 of their series is Sunday (4 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).

The final time these groups collided was within the second spherical of the 2022 playoffs, a series the Rangers received in seven video games. Center Vincent Trocheck was on that Hurricanes workforce, scoring three targets within the series. He’s now a key ahead on the Rangers.

“It was a battle. But it’s two completely different teams now. A lot of new guys since I’ve been there,” he stated. “But still the same style of hockey [in Carolina].”

One fixed is Brind’Amour behind the Hurricanes bench. He and Rangers coach Peter Laviolette have a singular historical past: In 2006, Laviolette coached the Hurricanes to the Stanley Cup … and Brind’Amour was his captain.

The similarities between these titans of the East don’t finish there. Here are 5 issues that may swing this extremely tight series in both course.

Can the Rangers thrive at 5-on-5?

By now, the Rangers’ vulnerabilities at 5-on-5 play are canon. We wrote about them in December. We wrote about them again in April.

They did little to dispel these considerations in opposition to the Capitals, with a 38.8% anticipated targets proportion at 5-on-5 of their sweep. But rating results have been an enormous a part of that disparity, particularly on offense: The Rangers have been tied for simply 13 minutes and 50 seconds within the series and trailed for simply 17 seconds at 5-on-5.

New York is taken into account an underdog by many on this series, a notion that tracks to how middling it’s when it’s not on particular groups, mixed with how dominant the Hurricanes have been at 5-on-5. Carolina earned 59.5% of the shot makes an attempt within the common season, greatest within the league. They have been second in anticipated targets proportion (56.9%), whereas the Rangers have been twenty second general (49%). That’s been a trademark of Brind’Amour’s groups.

It must be famous that the Rangers have improved at 5-on-5 (51.8% anticipated targets proportion) since including Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg to the lineup on the commerce deadline.

Of course, the Hurricanes have been nonetheless rolling at a 59.3% anticipated targets proportion after the deadline themselves.

“When it comes to how you run your offense, you have to look at how a team defends,” Laviolette stated. “It does change a little bit for me based on what the D-zone coverage is doing.”

Under Laviolette, the Rangers have performed a tricky, simplified recreation that entails fast puck motion. That’s helped them discover higher outcomes than final season, after they have been overwhelmed by the velocity of a workforce such because the New Jersey Devils, who eradicated them within the first spherical.

Carolina additionally strikes the puck quick, nevertheless it strikes its skates sooner.

“It’s just fast hockey. They’ll swarm at times. They can get going, and you’ve just kind of got to keep your cool in your own zone and get the puck out and live to fight another day. They come in waves,” Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba stated.

Brind’Amour felt that the 5-on-5 battle was going to be a good one defensively. “They give you no room because they’re a good team,” he stated.

One wild card for the Rangers: Center Filip Chytil, who’s been practising with the workforce however hasn’t performed since Nov. 2 as a consequence of a suspected concussion. He had 4 targets in seven video games in opposition to Carolina in 2022, all of them at 5-on-5.

This series options two beginning goaltenders who’ve hit their strides on the proper time.

Even because the Rangers have been stacking wins, Shesterkin was inconsistent earlier within the season, resulting in backup Jonathan Quick getting 26 begins. But Shesterkin had a .918 save proportion and 5.9 targets saved above common in his 14 video games because the NHL commerce deadline.

Following a 4-1-0 begin, docs found a blood clotting situation affecting Andersen. He missed 49 video games over a four-month span. Following his return to the lineup, Andersen posted a 9-1-0 report, 1.30 goals-against common, .951 save proportion and three shutouts. He led the NHL with 11.6 targets saved above common in that span, per Natural Stat Trick.

Andersen was named a finalist for the Masterton Trophy awarded “to the player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey.”

Shesterkin had higher numbers within the first spherical with a .931 save proportion and a 1.75 goals-against common. Andersen had a .912 save proportion with a 2.25 GAA. Shesterkin confronted extra high-danger shot makes an attempt per 60 minutes (7.47) than did Andersen (6.6), however each netminders noticed their groups hold the warmth off of them at even energy.

Andersen misplaced his solely begin in opposition to the Rangers this season, however stopped 24 of 26 photographs. Shesterkin was 2-1 in opposition to the Hurricanes with a .915 save proportion and one shutout.

Of course, when discussing the Hurricanes, it’s by no means only one goalie within the dialog. Rookie Pyotr Kochetkov began 40 video games for the Canes within the common season, posting a .911 save proportion. He confronted the Rangers twice in that 2022 series.

“There will be time when we’re going to rely on everyone on this team and he’s going to be a part of that,” Andersen stated.

Will a revamped Carolina offense put it over?

Brind’Amour has coached the Hurricanes because the 2018-19 season. They’ve made the convention finals twice since then, together with final season, after they have been swept by the Florida Panthers in 4 straight one-goal video games.

That encapsulated a frequent postseason situation for the Hurricanes: For all of their puck possession and shot makes an attempt, they’ve typically been unable to conjure up a objective at a crucial time to swing a recreation or a series. It’s been one of many starker variations between the Rangers and the Hurricanes: Despite New York’s common play at 5-on-5, it finishes probabilities it creates extra effectively than Carolina.

The Hurricanes have historically not chased high-profile offensive leases on the NHL commerce deadline. That modified this season after they received the derby for Pittsburgh Penguins pending free agent winger Jake Guentzel. He’s an elite top-line expertise who drives play and finishes probabilities. He’s additionally been probably the most efficient playoff performers within the NHL over the previous a number of seasons, with 62 factors in 63 video games, together with 4 factors in 5 video games in opposition to the Islanders.

Carolina additionally added former Capitals middle Evgeny Kuznetsov on the deadline. After registering seven factors in 20 regular-season video games, he had 4 factors in 5 video games within the first spherical.

Guentzel was plugged onto the Hurricanes’ prime line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov.

Ask across the workforce and the actual fact that Svechnikov is on this series could be extra vital than any commerce deadline pickup. He had 5 factors in 5 video games in opposition to the Islanders after lacking the postseason in 2023 as a consequence of an ACL tear. He’s a difference-maker.

Can the Panarin line degree up?

Artemi Panarin blamed himself for the Rangers’ first-round exit final season, tallying simply two assists in seven video games and skating to a minus-2 ranking. He refocused within the offseason, symbolically shaving his head, and returned to have a profession 12 months: 120 factors in 82 video games, together with 49 targets.

In his return to the playoffs, Panarin was stable: two targets and an help in 4 video games. The Rangers had such a bonus in opposition to the overmatched Capitals that they actually didn’t want Panarin to hold them. That doubtless modifications in opposition to the Hurricanes, given how tight this series will be performed.

But that’s not simply on Panarin. His line with Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere had as many scoring probabilities at 5-on-5 as they surrendered in 4 video games in opposition to the Capitals (20). They have been barely underwater in anticipated targets proportion (49%). The Rangers want this line to be higher than one that trades probabilities with opponents.

The particular groups stalemate?

The Rangers feed off their energy play, which ranked third within the common season (26.4%). They used it to shut out three of their 4 victories in opposition to the Capitals, going 6-for-16 within the opening spherical. Not to be outdone was their penalty kill, which ranked No. 3 within the common season (84.5%) and didn’t enable a Capitals power-play objective in three of the 4 video games. In reality, they’d as many short-handed targets because the Capitals had power-play targets (2) within the sweep.

New York would have a particular groups benefit over anybody within the playoffs.

Well, nearly anybody.

The Hurricanes had the very best penalty kill (86.4%) and second-best energy play (26.9%) within the common season. In the primary spherical in opposition to the Islanders, the Canes went 5-for-15 with the person benefit — though they did enable three power-play targets on 11 alternatives to the Islanders.

“As you get deeper in the playoffs, it gets more and more important,” Trouba stated. “All the teams at this point have good power plays and good penalty kills.”

Back of their 2022 series, the Rangers’ energy play was the distinction, with seven targets vs. simply two tallies for the Hurricanes. But that Carolina energy play wasn’t almost pretty much as good as this one, with Guentzel (11 power-play factors in 22 video games with the Hurricanes) now on the highest unit.

This could be probably the most even matchup of the series — no less than on paper — so to have it tip in both course may tip the series as properly.